Syria’s Silent Majority

Millions of Syrians are observing the popular mobilisation from a distance, whether in favour of or against the current regime. These people are reluctant to participate in the daily demonstrations calling for the fall of the ruling Baath party for fear of either getting shot or arrested by security forces. However, they are not eager to take part in any demonstration supporting President Bashar al-Assad either. These people are simply silent; their daily activity consists of going to work and returning straight home, avoiding any political action in the street.

Both sides of the struggle in Syria are eager to claim the support of this silent majority: the opposition is hoping that these millions of potential “protesters” will end their silence and join the movement defying the regime. As for the supporters of the regime, they think it is about time for these people to raise their voices and declare their “loyalty and love” for President Assad.

Part of this silent middle is comfortable living under the current regime, citing the government’s ability to provide security.

“We were never scared to leave home after midnight,” says Samira, a 69-year-old housewife. “We used to walk about feeling completely safe, but the changes about to take place in our society seem very scary.”

Her neighbor Amal, a 57-year-old housewife, counters, “The security we have felt so far was conditional on not saying anything.

Although both neighbours, who have known each other for more than 50 years, agreed that the current regime is oppressive, they acknowledged it was mindful of some citizen’s rights. But whereas Samira thinks it is necessary for the regime to survive, Amal is completely opposed to it; neither of the two, however, has taken to the street.

The dream of reform

Ammar, managing director at a private company in Damascus who refused to give his full name, believes that many Syrians are in favor of reform.

“Despite the fact that we are silent and do not participate in demonstrations, we really want reform in this country,” says ‘Ammar, “it’s unfair that such a family or regime is ruling [Syria].”

Ammar justifies his decision not to participate in opposition demonstrations because he says he is scared of getting arrested. Even though he does not believe the current regime is serious about carrying out reform, Ammar is not in favor of toppling it, due to the chaos he believes would follow.

Mohammad, the head of an economic think tank based in Damascus, believes that Syrians do not trust the current regime because they endured a long period of lies and corruption under Hafez al-Assad that only continued under Bashar, who has not kept a single promise he made.

“Demonstrations should continue as a means of pressure on the regime,” says Mohammad, “the street is the only place where the opposition can guarantee the accomplishment of what people really want.”

But Mohammad does not participate in any demonstrations, because he also fears arrest. He does not call for the “toppling of the regime” because he thinks a brighter future could be achieved without completely uprooting it.

Hayyan, an electrical engineer at a public establishment, thinks that the authorities have started to carry out the reform they promised. The government has hired many new civil servants, and has even seemed prepared to hire civil servants’ wives, according to Hayyan. He thinks that the demonstrators do not have a clear agenda, and went as far as to say that they have handed over the leadership of their movement to a “bunch of juvenile school delinquents”.

But despite his support for the regime, Hayyan does not participate in any loyalist demonstrations; he does not like to march with large groups of people, he says.

The politics of intimidation

Various reasons prevent the majority of Syrians from taking part in opposition-led protests. One of these is that the regime is scaring Syrians over what will happen once it falls. The official scenario goes as follows: toppling the regime will cause state institutions and corporations to crumble, adding more chaos to the current situation. Then, the chance to carry out the reforms declared by Assad will be lost once and for all. Moreover, the country will be under the rule of Muslim extremists; the state will be forcibly Islamicised, which will put at risk supporters of the regime as well as members of various religious minorities.

Similarly, the official media described the opposition on more than one occasion as “opportunistic”, saying that its sole aim was to rise to power. These official accusations went as far as saying that the opposition has lived off “crumbs thrown to it by the West”, and accused it of collaborating with the USA, France and Great Britain; this could bring back colonialism in a new guise, hence destabilising the whole region. This scenario has left many Syrians fearing for their future.

It is difficult to verify the Syrians’ political inclinations considering the current situation, but a survey that the US Pepperdine University conducted for the California Democratic Council and which was published in late September 2011 might help shed some light on this issue. The study showed that 86.1 per cent of Syrians, nearly 19 million, are dissatisfied with the performance of Assad’s regime, and that a proportion of 88.2 per cent of the population does not trust the current government or its ability to address urgent problems. Similarly, 71.1 per cent of responders, equivalent to nearly 16 million, expressed positive opinions towards anti-regime protesters, whereas only 5.5 per cent had negative views towards them.

Samira, who is scared of what tomorrow will bring, usually watches the Syrian pro-regime ad-Dunia satellite channel, saying that what is happening in the streets is nothing more than “a storm in a teacup.” As for Amal, she turns up the volume whenever she watches the Orient channel which empathises with the opposition, hoping her neighbours would hear demonstrators’ voices.

She says that the regime will eventually fall, which will bring a brighter future for a new generation that only wants what is best for Syria.